Abstract:
پولشویی، فعالیتی مجرمانه است که در جریان آن عواید ناشی از فعالیت های غیرقانونی در مسیرهای قانونی قرار می گیرد و به ظاهر تطهیر می شود؛ فرآیندی که آثار جبران ناپذیری را بر پیکره ی سیاسی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی جامعه بر جای می گذارد. با توجه به جهانی بودن آثار و فعالیت های ناشی از پولشویی، مطالعات دقیق در این زمینه ضروری به نظر می رسد. در این مقاله نیز برای اولین بار با استفاده از رویکرد متغیر پنهان و استفاده از نرم افزار آموس گرافیک به برآورد نسبت حجم پول های کثیف به نقدینگی و تاثیر آن بر متغیرهای اقتصادی، به طور اخص بر مصرف، پرداخته شده است. دوره مورد مطالعه سال های 89 – 1358 می باشد. نتایج به دست آمده از تحقیق نشان می دهد اگر چه در طی دوره ی مورد بررسی این متغیر دارای نوساناتی است اما دارای روند کاهشی بوده است، همچنین نتایج تحقیق نشان دهنده ی تاثیر مثبت پولشویی بر مصرف، در اقتصاد ایران است.
Estimation of money laundering and its impact on consumption in Iranian economy:
Structural model approach using Amos graphics software
Money laundering، is a criminal activity in which the proceeds from the illegal activity will be cleaned and seemingly rightful. A process that has irreversible effects on the body of the political، economic، social and cultural of society. Given the global nature of the activities associated with money laundering، detailed studies in this area seems necessary. In this paper، for the first time using latent variable approach and the use of Amos Graphics software will estimate the ratio of dirty cash to liquidity and its impact on economic variables، in particular on consumption.
The results of research shows that although this variable has fluctuations within the study period of 1358 to 89، it has a decreasing trend، the results of the investigation also shows a positive impact of money laundering on consumption in the Iranian economy.
Machine summary:
"JEL Classification: P28, Q25, Q53, Q56, Q57 Keywords: Sustainable Development, Carbon Footprint Trade Balance, Social Accounting Matrix and Economic Sectors Survey on the Relation between Economic Growth, Development of Banking Sector and Macroeconomic Variables using Panel-Var Method, Case Study of D8 Countries Vida Varahrami (PhD), Samaneh Javaherdehi (MA) and Sahar Dashtban (MA) 2 Received: 2015/10/5 Accepted: 2016/6/19 Abstract Economic growth is the most important indicator for a government performance.
JEL Classification: E58 Keywords: Economic Growth, Banking Sector Development Indicators, Economic Variables, Panel-Var, D8 Countries The Effect of Loans Growth on Credit Risk of Banks: Case Study of Selected Branches of Mellat Bank in Bushehr Province Abdolkarim Hosseinpoor (PhD) and Abdollah Dolah (MA) 3 Received: 2015/7/19 Accepted: 2016/6/19 Abstract: Credit risk is defined as the probability that part of the bank's assets especially loans drop in value or the probability of being worthless.
JEL Classification: C23, G21 Keywords: Loans Growth, Credit Risk, Mellat Bank, Bushehr Province A Study on the Determinants of Exports of Technical and Engineering Services in Iran: Seasonal Co-integration Approach Mehdi Yazdani (PhD) and Hamed Pirpour (MA) 4 Received: 2016/1/20 Accepted: 2016/6/19 Abstract: In addition to the development of the commodity sector, exports of services, including technical and engineering services (TES) will led to more employment, improvement of trade balance and economic growth in all countries especially in developing ones."
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